Today we’re going to bounce around between four as what I like to call “second-tier” tracks (as most Tier 1 tracks race Thursday-Sunday). I usually like to stick to the bigger name Tier 1 tracks (Belmont, Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park, etc.) but there is always value on every track — and that’s the name of the game.
Remember, my picks aren’t necessarily about picking winners — you could bet the favorites more time than not and end up OK. But what’s the fun in that? While I will bet favorites if I think they are as close to a lock as can get at a decent price, if there is another house at decent-sized odds that could win, it’s worth the gamble. Hitting 1 or 2 of these could net you more than hitting 3 or 4 favorites.
Indiana Grand — First Post 2:20 PM ET
Race 5: #8 Comfort Me Now (ML: 6/1). Comfort Me Now won the last time he ran at this distance (1 mile) on this track back in October. He ended up losing at a longer distance in November and a 4th place finish at a 5F sprint 2 weeks ago. I think back at this distance at these odds is a great value.
Race 6: #3 Merlin’s Song (ML: 5/1). I will be shocked if this horse is still 5/1 come post time. A mile is tricky to a degree, as you want a horse that has good pace at the end, but won’t fall too far back — and I think Merlin’s Song will do this just fine. It has the best speed at this distance and the best career top speed, but is probably discounted because it has not run since March (other horses have run as recently as early June).
Lone Star Park — First Post 2:35 PM ET
Race 1: #3 Fred’swirlincandy (ML 2/1). Fred might be the ML favorite, but at the 2/1 price he’s good value for who I think is the best horse in the field. He came in 2nd in a tougher race last time out in early June, so I think he’ll take care of business today. As long as his odds don’t dip below even, he’s worth taking. EDIT: His odds are all the way down to below even odds, so the new bet is a Daily Double with the horses I like in Race 2: 3/1,2,9.
Race 2: #1 Blaising Guitar (ML 8/1). Blaising Guitar actually beat today’s 5/2 ML fave #2 Buck Duane 2 weeks ago (2nd to 3rd place) by 2 lengths (behind a winner who won by 12 lengths). Buck Duane has now came in 3rd and 2nd as the favorite his last 2 races — so he has shown the inability to win. At 8/1, I like a horse that already beat the favorite and only 2 weeks ago. The #9 Uncorked Humor at 7/2 is also potentially good value — I’d monitor the lines closer to post and see which might be the better bet.
Race 5: #10 Foxrun (ML 2/1). The favorite here at 5 furlongs moves up in class after winning it’s last 2 races, including 2 weeks ago at 5 1/2 furlongs. He’s the favorite because of his last race — absolutely dominated and has the best speed and pace numbers based off of all the horses’ last races. I’m a little nervous he won’t be able to replicate that performance moving up in class, but it was so good it’s hard to bet against him. If the odds move closer to even money, I might look for better value elsewhere — notably the #4 Mr. Priority and #9 Tigerbeach. EDIT: Foxrun scratches, so I’m going with the #4 Mr. Priority as the best value pick.
Race 7: #8 Elusive Rose (ML 7/2). I don’t think Elusive Rose is that much different than the ML favorite #3 Final Form, the biggest difference is Final Form ran June 3rd and Elusive Rose last ran in March. I am also slightly intrigued by the 1 True Castle (ML 3/1) as well — I don’t necessarily recommend doing an exacta or trifecta box often, but one once in a while won’t kill you (in theory). If you’re feeling confident and your bankroll is looking good, might be nice to pull the trigger on an exotic and see what happens.
Race 8: #2 Approvethismessage (ML 7/2). The ML fave #6 Pompeyano (3/1) has a “suspicious drop in class” so I’m staying away — he has no business running in a race where he can be claimed for less than the amount he won at 2 weeks ago. Something is off there. Approve is the next best horse and priced accordingly. Hopefully Pomeyano receives more money and the odds increase in Approve’s favor.
Louisiana Downs — First Race 4:05 PM ET
Race 2: #1A Quiet Barbara (ML 12/1). Coupled Entries are always a tad bit confusing but hey, if you like one of the two horses and the other wins you still win. While both #1s won their last race, I’m more intrigued with the 1A — who won back on June 12th at a mile, so should have no problems running 7 1/2 furlongs today. I don’t think the other #1 Lady Rad has any shot today, but hey, at 12/1 and two chances to win, why not.
Race 3: #6 Kenai Cool (ML 2/1). I think Kenai is the best horse is this race based on the metrics, but he’s only won once in 25 starts. If it dips below the ML 2/1 I probably would stay away as you can’t really trust him otherwise.
Race 4: #14 Wildfire Storm (ML 10/1). In a 14-horse race, anything can happen. A crowded field can mean that one of the favorites get stuck in the middle and can’t really free themselves before it’s too late. Starting on the outside in a 1 Mile race definitely helps Wildfire who had the best late pace last race — he should be able to get into good position and then make his move at the end. At 10/1 he’s absolutely worth the gamble.
Race 7: #7 Zelig (ML 5/1). Maiden races are always tricky as it’s horses who have yet to win — so you have a mix of first time starters, inexperienced horses who have raced a few times, and more experienced horses who are quickly becoming perennial losers. Zelig ran decent in his first time out 3 weeks ago in his debut, so I think second time around he could take home the win at a decent price too.
Mountaineer — First Post: 7:00 PM ET
Race 6: #1 Artavia (ML 5/2). Artavia dominated a 5 1/2 furlong sprint 3 weeks ago at Mountaineer, winning by 6 lengths. Versus a similar field tonight, I like his chances as the ML second favorite.
Race 7: #2 US Marshal (ML 4/1). Although he failed as a favorite in a lesser race last time out, I think US Marshal rebounds tonight. The ML fave Freedonia is a solid foe, but I think at 4/1 USM is the move — I wouldn’t be shocked if he was favorite by post.
Drink If We Win!
If we end up in the money today, we’ll have to celebrate properly! Today’s victory beverage will be High West Campfire out of High West Distillery in Park City, Utah. A smooth blend of scotch, whiskey and rye, Campfire also has a slight smokiness to it that mimics what it’d be like sipping by the campfire after a hard — but good — day.
Ponies and Bourbon 