Part of the reason why I wanted to start this blog is to help others navigate the complexity that is horse racing. Listen, I’m know expert when it comes to horseracing. I’ve only been “handicapping” daily for a few weeks now. I say “handicapping” because there are people that have devoted their entire life to this over decades and decades. I can’t necessarily compete with them per say, but my hope is to give you good value picks daily, help you understand the picks, and hopefully win some money and try some new drinks.
Like I referenced above, I’m more concerned about finding good value picks — horses at higher odds that could win over horses at lower odds that should win. My logic is, hitting 1 or 2 horses at higher odds should pay off better than hitting 2-3+ horses at lower odds. It’s kind of like baseball in a way, hitting .300 will get you pretty far in your career rather than swinging for the fences every time up.
I break my process down utilizing a bunch of the data and factors available:
Pace: Pace measures how fast a race is run — independent to a degree of how fast a horse actually ran (Speed — we’ll get there in a sec). Essentially, pace is the way a horse typically runs in number form. A horse with fast early pace will start the race hot — come out swinging and hope to hold on to the end. A horse with late pace will hang around behind the early leaders and make his move down the stretch.
Distance: You can break down a distance into two types of races: a sprint or a trip. I usually considering sprinting 6 furlongs or less — and a trip 1 mile (8 furlongs) or more, with 7 furlongs stuck in the middle. Personally, I prefer sprinters to have excellent early pace and I am less worried about their late pace, with the reverse being considered for the longer races. By looking at horse’s pace numbers for the distance they are running, I can usually eliminate a good amount of the field who don’t fit my strategy (for example early pace horses in a 1 1/16 mile race). With that said, you shouldn’t automatically discount every horse automatically — a horse with great early pace could absolutely win at over a mile.
Speed: So while pace is more of the run style of a race, speed is the actual number that determines how fast a horse actually runs. The speed formula is designed to account for track and distance differences so it can be used across all horses. It’s not perfect, but it is a good way to distinguish the horses. For example, if the favorite has an average speed of 85, and the second favorites average is 75 but best career speed is 78, it’s going to have to take a below average day from the favorite plus a career day from the second favorite for the second favorite to win. However, if the second favorite’s career best is 84, you know it’s definitely capable on a given day to compete if the conditions are right — so it might be worth the gamble at it’s higher odds.
Past Performances (PP): Unless it’s the horse’s first ever race, looking at past races can help paint a picture on how you think they’ll do this race. Most betting sites and tracks will have available PP documents that map out what is going on. Definitely learn how to read one of these — it may seem daunting at first, but it’s the best way to try to determine how a horse should run.
Jockeys/Trainers: While the actual horse is the most important part of the bet, you do need to consider it’s jockey and trainer. Good jockeys and good trainers win more races, it’s as simple as that. A good jockey can will a mediocre horse to a win probably easier than a mediocre jockey can ruin a race or a good horse, but it’s still important to factor in a jockey in your bet. Same goes with a trainer — if it has a bad track record (or good one) for a certain race, definitely important to pay attention to.
Ponies and Bourbon 