Tough start to yesterday in Lone Star 2 as the 9/1 long shot Blaising Guitar narrowly came in 2nd after a late push — would have been a nice payout for the win and Daily Double. Had a few scratches, including Lone Star 5 where I should have held off as one of my two backups ended up winning and I of course picked the other. Merlin’s Song (5/1) lost by half a length as well. So it goes, but at least I know I’m picking good horses and did end up with 2 wins despite multiple second places.
Gulfstream Park — First Post: 12:00 PM ET
Race 5: #5 Say Adios (ML 4/1). Say Adios came in 2nd his last two races, but I think at 4/1 odds that’s great value for a horse that is certainly capable of winning. He’s the fastest sprinter in a race where sprinters win 50% of the time (28 races).
Race 6: #7 Honest Girl (ML 8/1). Fresh off her first career win, can Honest Girl go back-to-back against a higher class of opponents? If she ran like she did last time out, I think she can, and at 8/1 it’s worth the risk. I dabbled with the 10 Mystic Comin Home (3/1) but I’ll go with the better value here.
Indiana Grand – First Post: 2:20 PM ET
Race 5: #6 Hollee Peach (ML 3/1). Hollee won at 1m 2 weeks ago and has three straight wins overall, so I’m going with the hot hand a pretty good ML value. I doubt it goes below even money, but worth monitoring.
Race 7: #8 Wagon Boss (ML 8/1). I think this race is going to be awesome with a large field and with a number of horses that could win. Wagon ran extremely well two weeks ago on a mile on dirt here, so I’m hoping we can steal one at high odds on turf today. This might be the race of the day with how competitive it could be.
Race 8: #5 Chuy (ML 8/1). Chuy is a perennial loser. Coming into today, Chuy has 0 wins in 19 tries, and has only finished top 3 5 times. I usually stay away from losers like this, but with that said, there is an opportunity today. I don’t really think there is any horse that stands out — the ML fave has never raced on grass before which, makes me reluctant to bet it or consider it a threat. It very well could win, but anything can happen when it’s the first time for something. As a result, I’m going with Chuy and his experience. 20th time is the charm!
Lone Star Park — First Post: 2:34 PM ET
Race 1: #1 Thrasher (ML 10/1). Thrasher ran pretty well after a jump up in class in his first race after the layoff, so I think he has tremendous value racing back at a similar class he’s won at. It’s hard to ignore a horse at 10/1 who was top 3 with two wins in 4/5 races last year.
Race 2: #1 & 1A (ML 4/1). I’m very intrigued by the two horses running here, #1 Brew Casa and #1A Blue Darter. Blue Darter will mostly likely lead the field at the start with it’s high early pace, and I could see Brew Casa closing in strong with it’s pretty good late pace (even if it’s a short 5f race). Either of these horses could win, so I’ll take the two-for-one special. If one of them scratches, I’ll revisit (most likely the #4 Top Hat Charmer (8/1). EDIT: Blue Darter scratched, so I’m switching to the #4.
Race 3: #6 Laura Belle (ML 5/1). LB started strong and weakened towards the end in his last 3 starts at 6f, so I think a drop to 5 1/2 could be the magic distance, especially in the second race after a layoff.
Race 4: #1 Veilazig (ML 12/1). Veilazig won at this 1m distance at this track a few weeks ago, but moves up in class today. The fave, #2 Brightest (2/1) has never run longer than 6f, so I think he’s prime for the taking at this longer distance. No one else has even really run at this distance let alone win.
Race 6: #5 Fruhl’n Around (ML 15/1). Fruhl’n drops in class and distance, going from 6f back to the 5 1/2f which he has run in the 6 previous races before last. He had the best early pace last race, and this race typically favors sprinters (64% win rate out of 22 races). Depending on how my day is going, I may opt for the safer sprinter #3 Skylar Way (ML 3/1) who ran a career best race last time out on debut for a new trainer.
Mountaineer — First Post: 7:00 PM ET
Race 2: #5 King of New York (ML 4/1). King drops back into a class where he typically places in the top 3, so I like him after coming in 4th in a higher class last time out.
Race 3: #9 April Entry (ML 5/1): April Entry moves up a class after her first career win on this track 9 days ago — I like her again to repeat. Her speed has consistently been competitive on turf as well, like tonight’s race.
Drink If We Win!
Same as yesterday, the beverage on deck if we end up in the positive is:
High West Campfire out of High West Distillery in Park City, Utah. A smooth blend of scotch, whiskey and rye, Campfire also has a slight smokiness to it that mimics what it’d be like sipping by the campfire after a hard — but good — day.
Ponies and Bourbon 