We’re back after a day off yesterday to finally get in the money — third time is a charm. Only one win last time out out Tuesday (albeit a 10-1) so while the win % is not where we want to be, only down 2.5u is definitely not an issue after only 2 days.
Belmont is back today, my go-to track, so looking for a big day to finally be able to celebrate with some High West Campfire. Irad Ortiz Jr., the most prolific jockey in the country currently, is racing in 6/9 races so there is a good chance we ride with him in the majority of them. He is capable of winning 5 races a day. Unfortunately, he’s bet accordingly with all his success, but hopefully we can find some value along the way!
Belmont — First Post: 1:15 PM ET
Race 2: #8 Catch a Cab (ML 9/5). None of the horses really jumped out at me in this race, so after skipping Race 1 for the same reason, I’m just going to go with Irad. If the odds go much lower than the ML 9/5 I might audible to a Daily Double to get some sort of action in.
Race 3: #7 Jade’s Dream (ML 7/2). Maiden races like this are always tough because no one has won before — so how do you distinguish between horses who have lost multiple times and horses who have never even run before? I like Jade (the ML 3rd face) here because he came in 2nd last time out, beating out today’s 2nd fave (who came in 3rd). The ML fave, who Irad is on, has had some very good training numbers at 5f, but didn’t contend in it’s debut race at 6f. Now that the race is at 1 1/16 miles, I don’t know if that 6f was a test or if the trainer is trying something new. If I end up going the Daily Double route, I’ll probably include these top 3 horses.
Race 4: #1 Cairo Queen (ML 8/1). Jockey Dylan Davis also ran Cairo Queen in her last race, where she came in 2nd albeit at 1m, rather than today’s 6f race. Also starting in the 1 spot then, Davis was able to lead from the start all the way until Cairo Queen tired down the stretch. In the shorter distance, I like the value here with the same jockey and the same position at a shorter distance.
Race 5: #9 Tequila Sunday (ML 5/1). Going back to the Irad well here with a horse who won 3 weeks ago here under Irad’s brother Jose. In that 6f race (today’s is 7f), Tequila closed down the stretch to win by a nose, so I think that performance plus today’s little extra distance fits perfectly with Irad’s running style. He’ll get bet down because Irad, but compared to the other horses there is value here.
Race 6: #4 Edge of Fire (ML 9/2). This race might be the race of the day. This field has a bunch of burners, many of whom have won this year. However, a lot of them won at 6f while today’s race is 1 1/16m. The front runner is ML 6/5 Creed who dominated at a lower level at this distance 3 weeks ago — but Edge is great value as he’s consistently contended at longer distances at this level. Creed will be hard to beat, but Edge at his odds is the bet.
Race 7: #7 Backsideofthemoon (ML 10/1). I hit a 10/1 on Tuesday, so let’s try to hit another today. Backside drops down in class after a 3rd and 2nd place performance in his last two races. His average race speed is tied for the best in this race, so you can’t ignore him at this price. He also has the best career late pace, which I like at this 1m distance. Irad is riding a Todd Pletcher horse as the 2nd fave, so might have to dabble on both…we’ll see how the final odds shape up.
Race 8: #3 War Canoe (ML 3/1). This race is very interesting because there are no sprinters — 5 pressers and 2 closers — so there will be no one setting an early pace. As a result, I’m going with Irad — he’s the best jockey running, so I trust him to have the best strategy. War Canoe also has the best closing pace, so it should be well rested and ready to make a move since the overall pace of the race should be slower than usual with no sprinters. It’s also the biggest race of the day $-wise, so give me Irad as well for that reason. Depending on how the day goes, I might go higher than my 1 unit bet for this one if he’ stays around 3/1.
Race 9: #10 Apollo’s Abraxas (ML 10/1). Well if I don’t hit that earlier 10/1, maybe I’ll hit this (ideally both!). Apollo has zero top 3 finishes in her 7 careers starts — but they’ve always come at much higher classes. She ran decently well at Belmont a month ago, so I think she can definitely contend today at this price.
Drink If We Win!
Ok, maybe 3rd time is the charm for High West Campfire! If it doesn’t happen today, might need to find a celebratory drink for good luck…
High West Campfire out of High West Distillery in Park City, Utah. A smooth blend of scotch, whiskey and rye, Campfire also has a slight smokiness to it that mimics what it’d be like sipping by the campfire after a hard — but good — day.
Ponies and Bourbon 