Happy Birthday, America! What a better way to spend the day than watching one of America’s oldest sport. There is an action-packed day at Belmont Park, including the G1-Stakes Met Mile, which is an absolutely loaded field. I’m going to break down that race horse-by-horse before getting to the rest of my Belmont picks of the day!
Race 9: Runhappy Metropolitan H. Grade I. 1 Mile. — Post: 5:47 PM ET
There is an absolutely loaded — and fast — field here in New York today with multiple past Grade 1 winners competing.
#1 Network Effect (ML 8/1). Being ridden by superstar jockey Irad Ortiz automatically puts Network Effect into contention despite his long ML odds. Network came in 2nd to today’s #2 in Vekoma in the slop at Belmont a month ago, but still ran it’s 3rd highest speed figure out of the last 8 races. Network definitely has the speed to compete with the favorites, so at 8/1 plus Irad there is definitely value here.
#2 Vekoma (ML 5/2). As mentioned above, Vekoma beat Network Effect pretty handily in the mud last month here at Belmont, running with a blistering speed number. Despite it being in the mud, Vekoma is still certainly capable on a fast track as well. Vekoma did have a very poor showing in the Kentucky Derby last year, so there is a big blemish on his resume. Overall though, on any given day Vekoma is more than capable of crossing the finishing line first.
#3 McKinzie (ML 2/1). McKinzie has come in 1st or 2nd in 14 out of 16 career races — including in his previous 6 G1 races. His last G1 win was the Whitney in Saratoga last August, and then ran 2nd in back to back G1s at Santa Anita, including a tough 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, where he failed as the favorite. The ML favorite for these reasons, it’s hard to find a scenario where McK doesn’t come in the top 2 based on it’s illustrious history.
#4 Hot Creek Hustle (ML 30/1). Hot Creek only has one speed number over 100 in his last 10 — that is not going to be enough to compete here. He essentially would have to run his best ever race to come close to win, hence the 30/1. Jose Ortiz is riding him so that will help, but the field is just too stacked against him.
#5 Code of Honor (ML 3/1). Code had a great spring last year, coming in 3rd in the Kentucky Derby and winning the Travers up in Saratoga. Unfortunately, he couldn’t keep the momentum and finished 7th in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, but looked very good last month here at Belmont, winning a 1 1/16 m G3 race. Code certainly is more than capable of winning today and is an impressive 3 wins in 4 tries at Belmont (the one 2nd place being by a nose to Breeder’s Cup Classic champ Vino Rosso), so on this track at 3/1 is pretty good value here.
#6 Endorsed (ML 10/1). Endorsed has never won a G1 like many of his fellow racers today, so the 10/1 ML makes sense. He did come in 2nd to Code of Honor last time out here at Belmont, but there are just so many better horses both on paper and on the track to give Endorsed any sort of shot.
#7 Mr Freeze (ML 8/1). Mr Freeze has finished in the top 3 in 11/13 career races, so he certainly has an eye for the money. He certainly has the speed and winning mentality to compete with the heavier favorites — I would be shocked if that 8/1 doesn’t come down. His best time at the mile could beat everyone, so if he stays at 8/1 he definitely is the best long shot to take it home today.
#8. Warrior’s Charge (ML 12/1). Warrior is 8 for 9 in coming in the Top 3, with the 1 being a 4th place at the Preakness last year, where he was in the lead or second until the finish. His speed numbers aren’t as consistently fast as other long shots (like Mr Freeze) but I think it’s better than it’s 12/1 odds based on his record. Might be worth sneaking into an exotic
My Picks: Any of the 3 longer shots (Network Effect, Mr Freeze, Warrior’s Charge) all deserve a touch depending on how the final odds end up.
This is McKinzie’s race to lose — let’s make that clear. However, I do like Code of Honor’s record at Belmont as well. If McKinizie gets bet down towards even money, I like Code of Honor if he stays around the 3/1. Vekoma is the 2nd favorite, but take away the mud and I don’t think he’d be as dominant as he was in his last race.
To win: #1, 5, 7 (final odds depends on the amount)
Trifecta Box: 3/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7 ($6 total)
Rest of the Races
Race 1/2: 8/8,1 Double. Irad is on the first two favorites of the day, so let’s double up on the GOAT. In Race 1, #8 Charlotte Webly (ML 7/5) should have little to no issues. In Race 2, Irad’s #8 Leitoe (ML 1/1) does have some competition. The coupled entry in Race 2 brings the biggest fight, most notably #1 Ballagh Rocks.
Race 2: #9 Go Poke the Bear (ML 10/1). Pokey as I’m going to call him drops down in class to compete today — but had his two best speed numbers came in his last two races despite finishing 10th and 6th. Coming back down to a level (where he lost by a neck at Belmont last year) at a 10/1 odd is great value to go with his recent speed figures, especially since we’re covered by the two faves in the Double.
Race 3: #3 Reagan’s Edge (ML 8/1). Reagan moves up in class after winning by a head — and has won in 2/3 races. At 8/1 odds and in a small field, it has the speed to compete with the heavy favorites.
Race 4: #6 Bay Street Money (ML 6/1). It’s a maiden race, so no one has won yet. As a result, I’m going with Bay Street Money, who is only racing in his 2nd career race. He had a decent speed figure first time out and has had some good training since, so if he improves slightly he can definitely make some noise at his price.
Race 5: #6 Amundson (ML 3/1). This race will be awesome. Tons of speed, tons of different types of horses. The heavy favorite Fortin Hill (Irad) has two wins and a second in 3 career starts — but did fail that last time out. Amundson is the best true sprinter in a race that favors them historically, so I’m sticking with him at his price.
Race 6: #12 American Goddess (ML 9/2). When in doubt, go with Irad. A big field (12 horses) means a lot can happen in a big crowd, good horses can get trapped, etc. Although being on the outside does not favor Irad, there is no jockey I’d rather have of course. Dropping from 1m to 7f helps AG who does prefer to get to a faster start, so I think Irad will have her ready to contend.
Race 7: #8 Danfusi (ML 4/1). Danfusi moves up in class after an impressive maiden-breaking last time out here at Belmont in his 3rd career race. If he runs anything like his last race, I think he’ll definitely be in contention, so worth taking at the 4/1.
Race 8: #5 Social Paranoia (ML 4/1). A really fun race as the appetizer to the Met Mile, this one is absolutely stacked with talented horses. #8 Its All Relevant (ML 3/5) is going to be tough to beat (and is worth including in a Double with the Met Mile next race), however if you want standalone value for this race it’s Jose Ortiz’s Social Paranoia, who on a given day is absolutely the fastest horse in the field.
Race 10: #1 Insilled Regard (ML 2/1). Our second G1 race today, the Manhattan, is led by Irad Ortiz on the #1 post position. Instilled is the favorite and the fastest horse in the field, but just eeked it over #5 Devmani (ML 9/2) by a neck in a G2 race here at Belmont last month. If the odds go closer to even and Devmani becomes a good value — it’s worth switching. If not, we’ll probably end up playing a Pick 3 across 8/9/10 and include both the 1 and 5 here.
Race 11: #8 Moretti (ML 5/1). This is the best value in, you guessed it, another absolutely loaded race. #1 Tacitus and #4 Mr. Buff are the frontrunners — and they are no slouches. With that said, Moretti won the best race out of everyone last time out, at Belmont only 3 weeks ago. At 5/1 he’s the value play, but there are a bunch of horses in here that could win. Should be an extremely fun race to conclude a great day at Belmont.
Race 7-11: 4,8/5,9/2,3,5/1,5/1,4 Pick 5 ($24). This Pick 5 had to be done. It doesn’t include all of the long shots I mentioned above, but hopefully some of those will hit if this doesn’t to negate any potential losses. But we’re not going to lose so it doesn’t matter!
Drink If We Win
It’s America’s Birthday, we all are winners today. Enjoy what ever you prefer — it’s your freedom to do so!
Ponies and Bourbon 