What a day yesterday. After an up and down afternoon with some long shots coming in 2nd along with a few winners, they day really took a turn in Race 10 — the 4th leg of my Pick 5. After going 3/3, it took Irad Oritz riding out of no where (6th place down the stretch) to steal Race 10 with Instilled Regard by a nose. This kept the Pick 5 alive, and the favorite Tacilus was able to take it home in Race 11 to a tune of $744.75 payout. It just goes to show that doing your research — and a lot of luck — can pay off.
Have to go back to Belmont today, don’t think I can stomach another Pick 5 today (I’m still exhausted) but we have to touch a bit.
Race 2: #6 Risk Model (ML 5/2). This is an Irad Ortiz horse, which as you know makes me hard to resist. However, it has a higher average speed than the favorite #5 Too Sexy (8/5). It has never won on turf, but it’s hard to ignore how well it ran last time out. Also, horse #8 is named Kemba (30/1) so I have to bet it being a massive UConn fan. After yesterday’s success, I don’t care if it’s a waste of a unit!
Race 3: #6 Little Mazzy (ML 8/1). Little Mazzy has the highest last race speed rating, although it was on turf in a 1m race at Belmont a month back. However, Little Mazzy will return to the dirt and in a shorter distance today (6.5f) — which I think both things favor him. In his last 2 dirt races at a longer distance, he was 2nd by the stretch only to fade fast. I think a shorter distance plus a good last race out (which was his first off of a layoff) could be the recipe today at a good 8/1 value.
Race 5: #7 Daring Disguise (ML 5/1). Daring has 0 wins in 11 career starts (not great!) but has had some consistently good speed numbers against higher classes than today’s opponents. He didn’t really factor last time out at Belmont a month ago, but he still had the highest last race speed rating. There really isn’t anyone on paper who does it more, so I like the 5/1 value here. Also, I like the name mixed with the trainer’s name (H. James Bond). Just good vibes all around.
Race 6: #6 Riken (ML 9/2). Riken is the best pure sprinter in a race where sprinters have won 43% in the last 28 races at this distance at Belmont. Riken also has the best speed to match his running style compared to the other racers, but keep an eye on #7 Coach Villa (3/1) being ridden by Irad — Villa also has some pretty impressive recent races, but hasn’t raced since late Feb. Might have to bet both of them…
Race 7: #6 Stone Tornado (ML 2/1). This being the ML fave and an Irad horse, I don’t think Stone Tornado will last at this price by post time. With that said, it failed as the favorite last time out at 7f, leading down the stretch only to come in 3rd. Moving up to a mile makes me slightly nervous as a result, but I think Irad can ride the horse properly — it definitely has the ability to match his skill.
Race 8: #2 Big Thicket (ML 5/2). Another Irad horse — look, I get it, I’m bias. But not only is he the best jockey, he rides horses I like! Big Thicket is the top early pace horse and has the speed to match, which I like in a 6f race. What can I say? #5 Leap to Glory (15/1) is on the edge of being a sneaky contender but it doesn’t have a top career speed to meet the front runners.
Race 9: #6 Majestic Dunhill (ML 4/1). Majestic lost by a head against a tougher race last time out running the same race here at Belmont. Running with the same jockey, I’m hoping that they can re-create but with a win.
Race 10: #7 Sanctuary City (ML 9/2). SC has the best speed numbers overall and last race, which you know I love in a 6f sprint.
Ponies and Bourbon 