After back-to-back winning days (although one was slightly different than the other), we’re back focusing on two tracks today — Keeneland in Lexington and Indiana Grand. The race of the day is the G3 Indiana Derby, where the winner will get some series qualification points for the Kentucky Derby. Between the two tracks I’ll give you my best value plays and and a late Pick 4 for each for good measure!
Keeneland — First Post: 1:05 PM ET
Race 6: 2,9 Exacta Box. After looking through the first 5 races and nothing really jumping out, I love both #2 Greyes Creek (ML 3/1) and #9 Andesite (ML 3/1) here. In a mile on turf, closing speed is the name of the game — and both of these horses are a class above in late pace. I think the co-ML faves will battle each other til the very end and compete for a 1st and 2nd together.
Race 7: #7 Father G (ML 4/1). Another ML fave with high odds means great value to me. It should come down between him and the 3rd favorite Runnin’ Ray — who is a sprinter compared to the closer that Father G is. For a mile race, I’m going to go with the late pace. Father G drops in class after finishing 3rd in a tougher race, while Ray races at this level at this distance for the first time. Ray definitely has the speed to win, but I’m a little more comfortable with Father G. There are a couple others that could crash the party, so I’m not going to exacta even though I like both horses a lot.
Race 8: #10 Digital (ML 3/1). I know, another ML fave — how original. I don’t care if it’s the favorite or a long shot — if it’s good value, we play it. At 3/1, Digital is good value — it’s his first time racing on grass, but his breeding suggests he’ll like it — and he ran a career best speed in late May (on the dirt). If he’d had run on grass before, I’m sure he’d be at 2/1 or lower, so I’ll take the ML value of 3/1. If it drops below 2, I might have to re-evaluate.
Race 9: #11 Spice Road (ML 3/1). Yes, we’re doing it again. ML fave at 3/1. If it makes you feel any better (and if it really irks you when you end up betting favorites) I’ll be nice and put in a Pick 4 to give us a challenge. Ok? Ok. EDIT: Spice Scratched, so only touching this in the adjusted Pick 4 below.
Races 6-9: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,9/5,7/5,9,10/11,13,16 ($18) 2,9/1,5,7/5,9,10/3,10,14 ($27)
Indiana Grand — First Post: 2:20 PM ET
Race 2: #4 Knight’s Cross (ML 3/1). Knight has 2 wins and a 2nd in 5 starts in 2020, including a win at Churchill Downs a month ago on the same jockey as today. I like those vibes, so here’s to him running it back today.
Race 3: #2 One for Richie (ML 7/2). The co-second ML fave, Richie is the best challenger to 5/2 fave #5 I’m Corfu. Richie has just ran slightly better (and more recently) his last few races compared to Corfu, which is why I’m going with him.
Race 5: #2 Trashtalkinyankee (ML 8/1). I never ever really bet on a horse purely because of the name, but I kind of had to do so today. Love it. The horse actually is good value anyways (second best average speed), so at 8/1 it’s worth the bet with the name.
Race 7: #6 Cash for Gold (ML 9/2). Cash is 2 for 2 in wins in his young career. Even though he’s 2nd fave, it has the speed to compete vs #9 Two Last Words (ML 2/1) who also is coming off 2 consecutive wins.
Race 10: #15 Miss T Too (ML 15/1). This is essentially a hedge for my Pick 4 as it’s a horse that could win, but my gut told me not to include it in the Pick 4. Hopefully the odds stay in the double digits to make the hedge worth it.
Race 11 (Indiana Derby): #5 Shared Sense (ML 4/1). The ML second fave, Shared Sense could easily be the favorite come post time. A prolific jockey/trainer combo (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox) already sets Shared up to succeed, but he also ran extremely well 3 weeks ago as well in a 2nd place finish. In a big-time race, I like the big-time names in Geroux/Cox.
Races 9-12: $0.50 Pick 4: 2,5,7,10/6,9/5,9/1,2,9 ($24). I originally wanted to do a Pick 5 but I was nervous about Race 8 — there is a heavy favorite but the majority of the field could compete, so I decided to pass. Race 9 is super competitive (hence the 4 picks), but the winner will pack nice odds, so it’s worth the extra coin. Race 10, similar to Race 8, has a heavy favorite, but I added a long shot for good measure. Race 11 is discussed above (the fave and Shared Sense are the two picks) and Race 12 features the 3 faves who are all fairly close to each other. If we’re 3 for 3, I might hedge in Race 12 depending on how the payout and current odds are looking!
Win and We Drink! I already owe you a whiskey review from Sunday’s (slight) winning day, so it’ll be a double review if today comes out in the green. We’ll finally get to High West Campfire out of High West Distillery in Park City, Utah and then I’ll add a mystery one. Cheers!
Ponies and Bourbon 