Yesterday was a day to forget — after getting completely shut out at Keeneland (yikes!), things were turning at Indiana Grand after hitting the winner for the Indiana Derby, only to come up short with a second place finish in the final leg of a Pick 4. We’re back to Keeneland today for redemption, and a return to Belmont, my bread and butter.
Keeneland — First Post: 1:05 PM ET
Race 2: Trifecta: 7/1,3,11/1,3,11 ($3). Mixing it up a bit for the first Keeneland bet of the day — I think there are 4 good horses in this race, but #7 Jeweled Princess (ML 5/2) is the favorite for the reason — she has the top speed numbers competing in a higher class, so a drop today should give her the edge. I expect her to get bet down closer to even, so I don’t really see any value in betting her by herself The three others should battle for 2nd and 3rd as there is a gap between them and the rest of the field.
Race 3: #2 Atmos (ML 20/1). This is a race I normally pass on as there are a lot of solid horses that race inconsistently — hard to bet because you don’t know who shows up. However, Atmos is a 20/1 that can win — he has back-to-back wins, but moves up in class. With that said, if he runs his best race and some of the other contenders run a little off, he can win at this large price. Worth the risk given the field and this value.
Race 4: #9 Gemo Rain (ML 12/1). Love the ML value here for a horse that has 1 win and 4 seconds in 6 career starts. He lost a similar race by a neck last time out, so I think he’s more than capable at a price that’s fantastic.
Race 5: #9 Lady Oxbow (ML 6/1). Lady Oxbow last ran in March in a G2 race, and although posted a very good speed number for her, she finished 8th. I’m slightly nervous about her coming off a long layoff, but no one in this field really jumps out at me — so I think at 6/1 Lady Oxbow is the value play here.
Race 7: #9 Ella Brilla (ML 3/1). Ella has the best back speed, which is crucial in a mile turf race. I do think #4 Love Beach (10/1) and #8 Queen Medb (8/1) might be dangerous long shots — I might re-evaluate closer to the race (and maybe do a late Pick 3 as no one in the late two races really jump out at me).
Belmont Park — First Post: 1:15 PM ET
There are some heavy favorites in the first few races, so I’m going to do an early Pick 5 and then some individual picks to hedge.
EDIT: The heavy fave in Race 2 scratched, so we have some adjustments:
Race 1-5: $0.50 Pick 5: 2,7/3/4/4,5,7/3-7,9 ($18) 2,7/8/4/4,5,7/3-7,9 ($18)
*In the event that the Pick 5 fails early, I’ll re-adjust based on a combo of horses both from the P5 and the hedges below.*
Race 2: #8 Javelin (ML 4/1) & #9 Moneymeister (ML 8/1)
Race 1: #4 Illegal Smile (ML 6/1)
Race 3: #4 Whatdoessharksay (ML 4/1) & #3 No Mo Temper (ML 3/1)
Race 4: #6 Madam Deputy (ML 9/2)
And the rest…
Race 6: #6 Back Channel 5/2. I know she’s a heavy favorite, but I’ve been waiting for Back Channel to race again after scratching twice last week (and working out very well instead of racing). I’ll probably do a $10 win bet instead of the usual $2 bet.
The rest of the card is a lot of heavy faves (again), so we’re going to do a late Pick 4 as well — no hedges!
Races 6-9: 4,6/1,5/2,5/1,1A,4,6 ($12)
EDIT: Because the original P5 failed, I’m including Race 5 (and some hedges) with the PIck 4 and turning it into a Pick 5:
Races 5-9: 3,5,9/4,6/1,5/2,5/4,6 ($24)
Ponies and Bourbon 