The crown jewel of the New York Capital Region, Saratoga is one of the best gifts horse racing gives to its fans. An absolutely beautiful track nestled in an equally picturesque town, Saratoga IS summer. However, with no fans this year, things will be different — but the very best horses and jockeys will be there, so we bet away!
Both Ortiz brothers will be riding today — they OWN Saratoga. You have to at least give their horse a strong look in every race — I always lean Irad most races as he is the best in the game, but Jose isn’t far off, especially at Saratoga.
Race 1 — 1:10 PM ET Post — $14000 Claiming, 1 1/8 Mile
The three ML favorites — #6 Guy Caballero (2/1), #7 Jerome Avenue (5/2) and #1 Castle Casanova (7/2) — all have average speeds in the mid-80s — no other horse in the field has one above 78. I’m going to exacta box these 3 to start the day. Depending on how the odds shape up, I might add a separate win bet of #2 Grit and Glory (6/1) who has the ability on a given day to win this race. However, Grit has been widely inconsistent and seems to alternate good and bad speed performances. It had a bad one last time out in early June, so he’s due for a good one today. EDIT: The #1 scratched, so I will replace him in the exacta box and Pick 5 with #2.
Race 2 — 1:44 PM ET Post — $75000 Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Mile (t)
I’m going to go with the ML fave (after a scratch), #1 Leading West (3/1) who is being ridden by my personal favorite jockey, Irad Oritz, Jr. Leading West is fresh off of back-to-back 2nd place finishes where he posted his two career fastest speed figures — closing in on the eventual winner both times down the stretch to lose by 1 length and by a neck. Irad will know what buttons to press on him today to be right there at the finish line. After a bunch of scratches, #10 Scanno (7/2) is the only one that might be able to compete with Leading West, so he’ll be in the Pick 5.
Race 3 — 2:20 PM ET Post — $74000 Alw, 6F
This is only a 5-horse race, but it is full of talent. I’ll probably include the two faves in a Pick-5 and then bet the #4 Glass Ceiling (4/1) as the value pick to hedge. Two races ago, she ran a great race, prompting her to be placed in a G1 Race at Belmont in late June, her last start. In that race, she started strong but was held back halfway through — clearly with an issue. Well, I assume she’s in tip-top shape today since she’s in the race, so if she isn’t scratched, I like her as this price to be able to win. Plus, Irad is on her as an added bonus! Jose is on the second fave, #3 Palance Avenger (2/1) who I do like over the ML fave #5 Palomita (9/5). The one that’s giving me a lot of trouble is #1 Carrizo (6/1). Carrizo is another one of those horses that runs well every-other time out, and today it’s one of those where she’s due for a good race. She is absolutely capable of winning when she runs her best, it just depends obviously who brings their A-game today. Depending on how her odds ends up, I might hedge like I am with Glass Ceiling for the Pick 5.
Race 4 — 2:54 PM ET Post — Mdn 72K, 6F
Maiden races are always tough because how do you judge between horses that have never won and horses that have never raced? No one really jumps out at me this race, but I am intrigued by the #3 Dial Me Up (3/1) ridden by Irad. She came in 2nd at this distance in her only previous start, losing down the stretch. The only two other racers who have faster speed numbers did it at longer distances, so I like how Dial Me Up is proven (small sample size of 1 of course) at this distance, and at a decent value (with an Irad bonus). Jose is on a first-time starter #2 Yes to Mischief (9/2) which has had some good workouts, so I’ll probably add to the Pick 5.
Race 5 — 3:28 PM ET Post — OC 40000, 6F
This is going to be a fascinating race. Every horse has put in a speed rating over 90 in a recent race, even the long shots. Literally every horse in this one has a chance to win I think, which as you know rarely ever happens in any race, let alone one with 8 entries. The two faves obviously jumped out at me right away — #5 Dark Money (5/2), and Irad’s #8 The Caretaker (3/1) — I’ll include them in the Pick 5. If the Pick 5 is alive by then, I’ll probably throw $2 on everyone else to hedge some (depending on how the odds end up of course).
Early Pick 5 — $0.50 bet for $36 total
Race 1: 2,6,7 | Race 2: 1,10 | Race 3: 3,5 | Race 4: 2,3,5 | Race 5: 5,8
Race 6 — Post 4:04 PM ET — MC 40000, 5 1/2F (t)
This is a big race, with 11 horses running. I’m actually going to go with both Ortiz brothers here — I think they have the two best horses that can win (shocker). Irad’s #2 Mr Everything (7/2) has never run at shorter than 7 1/2F, and has ran at 1 mile or more his last 3 races. He’s show some quick early pace and then faded, so I think trainer Wesley Ward believes he can be a sprinter instead. Jose’s #8 Spitball (4/1) lost by a neck after leading the entire race in his last time out, his second career start. I think 4/1 is tremendous value for a horse that was that close to winning — I’m probably going to exacta box the two and maybe bet Spitball by itself when I see where the final odds end.
Race 7 — Post 4:40 PM ET — Alw 64000, 1 1/16 Mile (t)
I was originally going to pass on this race as no one jumped out, but I think I’m just going to throw $2 on #4 Minit Maus (20/1). This race just screams upset to me (hence why I was going to pass) and I think Minit Maus has shown the closing speed at this distance the last 2 races to make a move today. Only 1 win in 17 starts is why she’s at 20/1, so let’s see if we can make today 2 in 18.
Race 8 — 5:14 PM ET Post — G3 Schuylerville, 6F
The first of two graded stake races today, there is a heavy favorite in #3 Beautiful Memories (6/5). This will be a fun one as every horse has one before, all of them except #2 Hara (10/1) winning their debuts. Hara actually is the only one to race at farther than 5F, winning at 5.5F — so I actually like that advantage as we go up to 6F. At a 10/1 price, I think it’s great value. I also think #4 Quinoa Tifa (15/1) is an absurd price for coming off the highest last race speed rating and some killer workouts — I’ll probably also throw a win bet on her as well, and maybe exacta the two with the favorite.
Race 9 — 5:46 PM ET Post — Peter Pan G3, 1 1/8 Mile
Our second G3, this time at a distance, is a little more wide open than the previous race. I’m going to have two bets here: #7 Caracaro (6/1) by himself and then him trifecta boxed with #6 Mystic Guide (5/2) and #2 Country Grammer (7/2). I think they are the three horses best suited for today’s race, both in terms of average speed and late pace needed at this distance. #4 Celtic Striker (12/1) is an intriguing long shot, he might get some looks if he stays at that price.
Race 10 — Post 6:18 PM ET — Clm 40000, 5 1/2F (t)
I would have been all over the #8 Summer Fortune who scratched, so I think the heavy fave #1 Secure Connection (5/2) and second fave #2 Doll (7/2) will be the only two to really compete. I’ll either exacta box the two or just take Doll depending on the final odds, if I bet this one at all.
Ponies and Bourbon 