A late trifecta salvaged the day yesterday, but some crazy upsets in the early Pick 5 put us in the red. Day 2 of Saratoga — let’s get some momentum into the weekend!
Race 1: OC 62500, 1 3/8 Mile (t)
The favorite #1 Prioritize (4/5) will have to go in an exacta with #5 Bundibunan (7/2). Both have great late pace which I think will be crucial at a distance and on turf. There is another heavy fave, #6 Value Engineering (1/1) who can contend but didn’t run as fast as the other two last time out, despite placing in the top 5 all 5 careers starts. #3 Go Poke the Bear (8/1) is a good long shot pick — I might include him in the exacta depending on how the odds shake out. EDIT: Prioritize scratches, so I’m going to include Irad’s #4 Legit (9/2) in an exacta box with the 5 and 3.
Race 2: MC 25000, 7F
I think this race is wide open, with at least 4 horses who I think can probably win. 7F is always tough because it’s like the 200M dash in track — you essentially have to sprint a long distance. ML fave #1 Dawn’s Early Light (2/1) will have to be included in any exotic bet. The #10 Brunate (6/1) also has some value at that price and came in 2nd in a similar race last time out. A few other horses intrigue me including #7 Fridaybeers (6/1) and #6 Lorenzen (8/1), but I probably won’t touch them to include in an exacta unless the odds start going into their favor and the public thinks they’re capable.
Race 3: Alw 50000, 1 1/8 Mile
#4 The Rock Says (3/5) is the heavy fave due to 8 top 3s in 9 career races and by far the best average speed numbers, but only 1 win makes me nervous about backing him heavily. To be honest, I think every horse in this 7 horse field can win minus the #2 super long shot, so this race will be interesting. #3 First Rate (5/1) is the top contender to me along with #1 Universal Payday (6/1), but any of the other horses (sans #2) can win if they match their career best. #7 Fried Rice King (10/1) moves up in class after his first career win — he’s the only sprinter in here so he in theory will be leading the pack from the start — I just don’t know if he has the legs to finish up against the rest of the pack. I’ll probably include him in a trifecta with the other 3, but if he stays at 10/1 or higher, he’s a great value bet by himself.
Race 4: Clm 25000, 6F
The fillies get their first run of the day in Race 4, a 6 furlong sprint. I really like the #4 Pick Up the Fone (6/1) followed by the #2 Leaveuwithasmile (8/5) and #5 Stunning Munnings (6/1). That heavy fave #2 has won at a higher level and has the best resume, but hasn’t looked as good of late — I think she’s prime for the taking. #1 Customerexperinece (3/1) might very well end up as the favorite come race time — I’d actually almost be comfortable doing an exacta with 1, 4 & 5 and ignoring 2 completely — we’ll see where the odds end up. The only reason she’s not the fave is she has not run well at this higher level, although had a great race last time out (albeit at a lower level). As for a longshot, #6 Touch of Nirvana (15/1) is dangerous at this price but would take a career-best race to win. However, she has won at this level but at weaker speed than what some of the others in today’s race have run at.
Race 5: Mdn 62K, 1 1/16 Mile (t)
When it comes to distance on turf, I prefer horses with late pace — I think that’s the key more times than not in these races. While I prefer it on longer dirt races as well, you still can see sprinters win more so than you will on turf. #10 Sandro the Great (3/1) and #3 Fast Gordon (6/1) had the best late pace by far in their last races — however Fast Gordon has never raced on turf. I’ll probably do an exacta box with the #10 and #9 Voliero (9/2) who has the best most recent race.
Race 6: Alw 64000, 7F
This one has 3 heavy faves and 5 long shots — I’m going to tri box the 3 (#3, #7, #8) and hope they do their thing. #2 Coach Villa (8/1) is the best long shot, so I might bet him by himself if his odds stay up there and to hedge the Pick 5.
Race 7: 85K De La Rose Stakes, 1 Mile (t)
Our first of two stakes today, this race is absolutely loaded with some burners. 5 of the 9 horses’ average speed rating is 88-95, and the lowest is only 83 — it should be very competitive. #4 Clara Peeters (5/1) ran fantastic in her last race out at Belmont, her second start in the US after a decently successful career in Great Britain under star trainer Brad Cox. She’s my top pick if she can emulate those two US races — I think she’s ready to shine at Saratoga. You can’t discount the Ortiz Brothers in big races though. Irad’s #2 Noor Sahara (4/1) and #3 Passing Out (7/2) ridden by Jose are both capable of winning even if they weren’t ridden by an Ortiz — so I’ll probably exacta box these three and bet Clara by herself is she stays a high price.
Race 8: OC 62500, 5 1/2F (t)
The heavy favorite #3 Lady Lawyer (3/2) ran an exceptional race, only to lose to the previously mentioned Clara Peeters — so that only helps prove my Clara Peeters pick for Race 7. I’m going to exacta box her with #1 Guacamole (10/1) who is at a high price from struggling at distance races but I think can contend returning to a sprint and #5 Lady Worthington (8/1) who won last time out. I also might bet either of those by themselves to hedge the Pick 5 if they stay at a high price.
Race 9: 85K Shine Again Stakes, 7F
Our second stakes of the day will be run at a high pace with 3 sprinters leading the pack out of the gate. #5 Indian Pride (6/5) and #2 Risky Mandate (9/2) are must plays to me. I’m forced to include Irad’s #9 Blamed (7/2) as she has 9 wins in 15 career starts. In a big race, you can’t discount an Ortiz — Jose’s #6 Joy Epifora (12/1) is good to include in an exacta or trifecta box — it’s hard to judge because most of her career has been in Argentina. But it’s a stakes race and Jose is on her, so I think at 12/1 she is extremely dangerous and great value.
Race 10: MC 40000, 1 Mile (t)
Quite frankly, this is a mean race for the final leg of a Pick 5. It’s a Maiden Claiming so it’s horses that haven’t won and are up for sale — essentially the winner will be the best of the worst. I’m going to go with Irad’s #5 Diannesipazible (6/1) and Jose’s #14 Cold Hard Cash (5/2) to play it safe along with #9 Golconda (12/1). Probably exacta those three and include the Ortiz’s in the Pick 5 and hedge with the #9.
Late Pick 5: Races 6-10 | $0.50 bet, $36 total
Race 6: 3,7,8 | Race 7: 2-4 | Race 8: 3 | Race 9: 2,5,6,9 | Race 10: 5,14
Ponies and Bourbon 