After a long layoff of not blogging (computer issues, traveling) we’re back this week for a full Wed-Sun slate at The Spa.
Unfortunately, Saratoga got absolutely pummeled by a tropical storm yesterday, so I’m skeptical of what conditions we’ll get — it appears we won’t get any turf races today. It’s worth looking at where odds change late today — the non-ideal track conditions usually result in horses getting bet that usually wouldn’t, so monitor and thus bet appropriately if you see a long shot getting bet up.
Race 1: I don’t like to be these super long hurdling races, but they are fun to watch. Make sure you at least tune in if you can to check it out.
Race 2: Jose Ortiz pairs with trainer Linda Rice on #2 Icy Dude (ML 6/1) who is fresh off his first career win in 5 starts after back to back seconds. There’s great standalone value at this price, but if the odds drop a lot than I might exacta box with Jose’s brother Irad who is on #6 Naught Prince (9/5).
Race 3: I’m digging the long shot #3 Inside Info (15/1) who is off of back to back wins out of 4 career starts. Today’s jockey Luis Saez ran him at Belmont in June where he dominated wire to wire. If he’s able to replicate that run today and some of the favorites are below average, this horse could pay nicely. If you’re looking at maybe an exacta or trifecta box, I’d add #6 Three Outlaws (4/1) and #7 Freewheeler (6/5).
Race 4: Going to skip this race, it’s only 5 horses and the odds are all over the place.
Race 5: Another race I don’t love since all but 1 in the field are first time starters. If you don’t want to skip two races in a row, Jose Ortiz on #9 Rossa Veloce (6/1) had the best training time last time out. Good value for Jose if the price stays.
Race 6: Another race I don’t love, but might be able to squeeze out a trifecta box in. The couples entry in the 1 spot are both more than capable — and it’s never a bad thing to get 2 for the price of 1 (even if that price is the ML fave of 8/5). I’m going to add to the trifecta #3 Playwright (9/2) who has 6 top 3 finishes the last 7 races and #5 Control Group (5/2).
Race 7: Another maiden race (boo) of perennial losers (boo again for them) but I’m going to go with #5 Harlem Heights (2/1) and Jose Ortiz. It ran a great 4th career race speed wise last time out but was still blown out by over 5 lengths in a second place finish. That’s says to me the winning horse was just a different beast. Against a presumably weaker field I like my chances to (hopefully) double my bet if the odds stay as is. If the odds go too low, I might include or bet by itself #7 Heavenly Sis (6/1) who has 3 career 2nds in 6 starts. The ML fave is Irad’s Black Magic Woman (6/5) who is making a first career start. Could definitely be included in an exotic as well.
Race 8: This is a money-making race as the ML fave is already at a decent price of 3/1. This is race where it’s important to see where they money is going as the lines start to move as post time approaches. If I had to pick one now, Irad’s #6 Super Dude (7/2) has lived up to his name the last few races despite not winning — if it runs at those speed figure it wins today. If the track is in meh condition, #1 Winston’s Chance (8/1) ran his best career race in slop, so worth giving a strong look at, especially from the first starting position.
Race 9: This is a turf race most likely moved to dirt, so all bets are off. Well, all bets need to be on because who knows what could happen. #6 Foxtail (15/1) won for me the other day, so why not repeat it, especially at that price. While almost exclusively a turf horse, she also won a dirt race at this distance, worth noting.
Race 10: Another race moving from turf to dirt, so I’m going with Jose’s #9 Beyond Brown (3/1) who has run twice on dirt. Although it was so-so results, it was better than the other horses in the field that ran on dirt.
Ponies and Bourbon 