Managed two wins yesterday in our return to Saratoga. That’s good, not great, so time to do better today.
We have a so-so card today, where a lot of the favorites I think are going to be hard to beat — not much value to speak of in some of the races.
Race 1: Starting the day with a Maiden Claiming, so the 8 horses in the field are still looking for win #1. The two I like the best are #4 Macho Jack (8/5) and #8 Boss Life (7/2). Macho is the ML fave and is only running career race #4 today, but has shown some flashes of promise. Boss Life has been mostly running longer distances to little to no success, so I think a shift to a sprint will help him out.
Race 2: This race has two horses that I think are just absolute studs. The ML fave #2 Keota (4/5) being ridden by Irad failed as a favorite last time out, but has 8 Top 3s in 17 career races. Running next lane over will be #3 Malibu Mischief (2/1) who has 6 wins in 18 starts, including the last two times out, both at Belmont. I actually think Malibu is the better horse and will probably be the favorite come race time. The only other horse that can maybe touch this duo speed-wise is #6 Jades Gelly (3/1) but only has 1 win in 6 races. Edit: Malibu is a scratch, so we’re down to a 2 horse race.
Race 3: The ML fave #2 Star of the West (6/5) has been mediocre in 2/3 races — but the reason he has these heavy odds is the middle race was exceptional. He’s on Irad today, but last time out, at Saratoga on Jose, he was subpar despite being a heavy favorite. Fortunately, he probably only has to beat 2 other others out of the 6 other in the field — #1 No More Miracles (4/1) and #7 My Sacred Place (8/5). Both have only found the winner’s circle one time before, but are still probably better than the rest of the field. Edit: My Sacred Place has scratched, so another 2 horse race.
Race 4: I hate to go chalk, but the three ML faves are the three best horses in this massive 13 (!) horse race. #13 Stoney Bennett (9/5) is absolutely the horse to beat, but #1 Dr Shane (5/2) and #2 Catch a Cab are more than capable. If you want a long-er shot, #7 Mission Command (8/1) is that guy as he has the best closing pace in the field, which is critical in a turf race. Edit: Well, there was a massive number of scratches here. Stoney and Dr Shane are among the 5 scratches. This leaves Mission Command and To Catch a Cab as my picks, but I also might have to add #5 Hushion (20/1) as a value play addition.
Race 5: This is a maiden claiming racing with a lot of first time starters. I don’t usually like betting these just because there is just not enough data to make a safe bet, although I did hit one of these races yesterday. If I had to make one bet, #3 Shesadirtydancer (5/1) is the best value as of now. She’s ran two races, both on dirt as opposed to today’s turf, but her breeding suggests she will like the grass. She could be the early pace today judging by her last race, so I like that in a race of mostly first timers at a short 5 1/2 furlongs distance.
Early Pick 5: Since there really isn’t much value in most of these first 5, I’m going to do a small $12 pick 5 and then take any long shots by themselves that I like. Let’s go with: 4,8/2,6/1,2/2/3,4,6
Race 6: Finally a true long shot I like. #7 Heartstrings (10/1) came in second last time out at a mile, so I like her dropping down to 7 furlongs today. Her speed last race is second to the heavy favorite #2 Gesture (1/1) so I think at 10/1 you have tremendous value. It will probably get bet down, but if it stays at 5/1 or higher it’s worth the standalone bet.
Race 7: The ML fave #3 Dyna Passer (5/2) is once again most likely the best horse (shocker) so I’m inclined to include it in an exotic bet. #5 Pallas Athene (8/1) is a good value play as it ran just as fast as Dyna last time out. Irad is on a Chad Brown import from France, #6 Eliade (7/2) so I’m inclined to include her as well in a bet. Separately, the #1 Red Curls (30/1) is actually borderline capable of taking it home as well — if it stays at a high number I’ll bet her by herself.
Race 8: This is probably the race of the day as it’s a $100K purse for 3 year olds eligible for the New York Stallion Stakes. I’d say 5 out of the 6 running are capable of winning this turf race, but I’m going to go with #5 Dream Bigger (2/1). Although he’s never raced on turf, he’s shown good late pace under jockey Jose Ortiz who is on him today. I’m hoping he gets a little higher price but if it’s 2/1 or higher it’s the best value play. Irad’s horse #1 Fresco (5/2) is also a solid play, but I’d only take him if his odds become much higher than Dream Bigger.
Race 9: Our card concludes with a 12 horse mile around the turf. No much value here unfortunately, but the #6 Catorat (5/1) might be the play. He has a 3 Top 3’s in 4 races, and although he might not have the pure speed of the favorites, he has the best closing pace. Jockey Eric Cancel has also ridden him in all 4 races, so I like the familiarity.
Ponies and Bourbon 