Happy Travers Stakes Day! We have an absolutely packed and competitive 12-race card at The Spa today, extremely befitting for the magnitude of the day. Obviously, the crown jewel of today is the running of the Travers Stakes where Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law looks to keep the momentum ahead of the remainder of the Triple Crown circuit. However, he will be challenged by a West Coast champion, Uncle Chuck who is 2 for 2 in his career under the training of Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.
Due to the schedule re-shuffling due to COVID-19, Travers is actually functioning as a 4th race to the Triple Crown this year, mostly due to Tiz running. If Tiz is able to win today and then complete the traditional Triple Crown, it has to go down as one of the best horses in history — it simply would be an unprecedented feat giving the uniqueness of 2020.
I’ll highlight each horse in today’s Travers with my suggested bets and then highlight some of the under card action worth taking a look at!
Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) — 1 1/4 Mile — 6:15 PM ET Post
#1 First Line (ML 30/1): It did win last time out going at a distance for the first time (1 1/8 M) but it moves up in class here with a speed figure from that race that is still well below the rest of the pack. I think this horse has a bright future but it’s not ready for the lime light today on the biggest of stages. Edit: First Line has scratched — do keep an eye out for him next time he races!
#2 Country Grammer (6/1): Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr and trainer Chad Brown team up as quite the dynamic duo. Irad is grabbing top 3s 57% of the time at Saratoga this year, while Chad is at 65%. Country won his last race under Jose Ortiz 3 weeks ago at Saratoga, closing nicely to win by a neck. It will need a better effort than that to win today, but with Irad and Chad you have to take it seriously.
#3 Uncle Chuck (5/2): UC is 2 for 2 in his career, winning his maiden by 7 lengths and then winning the Los Alamitos Derby (G3) by 4 lengths. He is Kentucky bred despite racing in California so far — I do not think trainer Bob Baffert would ship him out to New York if he didn’t intend to win. Luis Saez is on UC who rode him in that Los Alamitos Derby, so the familiarity will be nice to have. Obviously a 2 race sample size isn’t the best indication, but I think UC is priced appropriately as the biggest challenger to Tiz The Law.
#4 Max Player (6/1): The third place finisher from the Belmont Stakes looks to get another crack at Tiz the Law with jockey Jose Rosario. He actually has the second highest speed from last race in the field, it just happens it’s second to Tiz The Law’s. Max probably has the best closing pace in the field, so look at him to make his move down the stretch. At an a longer distance than what any horse in this field has run at, I like Max as a long shot type because of this. He actually closed (however slightly) on Tiz down the stretch at Belmont, so will the extra distance give him the slightest bit of opportunity?
#5 Shivaree (30/1): The other long shot today, Shivaree has not had a win at a distance in his 12 race career — although he did come in 2nd to Tiz the Law at the Florida Derby (G1), losing by 4 1/4 lengths. Shivaree could potentially be the pace setter and lead out of the gate — but I just don’t think he has the closing speed and stamina to place today at a longer distance.
#6 Tiz the Law (1/1): The horse that needs no introduction. Tiz is 3/3 in G1 races in his career, 5 wins in 6 starts overall (with a 3rd place in the slop). He has gotten better in his last 3 races, with Belmont being his best performance to date. Manuel Franco is back on him and has 4 of Tiz’s wins. He’s the favorite for a reason and he should win, plain and simple. If he equals his trip from Belmont, he cannot be caught by most horses, let alone the ones in this field.
#7 Caracaro (10/1): The other horse besides Shivaree that could be the pace setter, Caracaro has 1 win and 2 2nds in 3 career starts. He lost out by a neck to the before mentioned Country Grammer, so perhaps if that result was flipped he’d be the one at 6/1 instead. This means he’s tremendous value at a 10/1 price — if it stays at 10/1 it’s worth betting at solo.
#8 South Bend (15/1): The other pure closer to go with Max Player, South Bend started his career with 3 straight wins but has not seen the winner’s circle in his last 8. With that said, star jockey Jose Ortiz should put him in the best situation as possible to succeed. I think at this price it’s absolutely worth including given Jose’s success at this track — he could have easily stayed on Country Grammer who he rode to a win 3 weeks ago. This is the best long shot pick in my opinion — although Jose needs to get her in the inside sooner than later. If she’s stuck going 4 or 5 wide down the stretch, she has no chance.
So as I mentioned, I think that Shivaree and/or Caracaro will be the pace setters with Tiz and UC setting up right behind, looking to make a move at or near the stretch. I don’t think either pace setter has the stamina to finish strong — which makes the closers that much more dangerous. Again, because this is the longest distance that any of these horses have run at, I think it opens up a little bit more concern for the heavy favorites than normal. Any thing can happen in that extra bit down the stretch.
Watching the replay of Belmont, it really is hard to bet against Tiz the Law. I do think today will be run at a slightly slower pace than that race, which I do think benefits everyone at this longer distance. My predictions:
1st: Tiz the Law | 2nd: Max Player | 3rd: South Bend
Trifecta Bet 1: 6/4/2,3,8 ($15 for a $5 bet)
Trifecta Bet 2: 6/2-4,8/2-4,8 ($6 for a $0.50 bet)
Value Plays: #5 to win | #7 to win | #8 to win
And the rest of the card…
Race 1: In terms of last races, #1 Glynn County (8/1) had the best closing speed last time out — so I like that in a turf race of 1 1/16 Mile. This is a Maiden race so everyone is looking for that first career win — I like the value here with the #1.
Race 2: Dropping in class today after a 3rd place finish at The Spa 10 days ago, #6 Creative Style (3/1) has a prime opportunity to rebound successfully, moving up to 1 1/8 mile after running at 6 1/2 furlongs. He won his last race at a distance mid-June at Belmont, so he is certainly capable today.
Race 3: It’s going to be hard to top the ML fave #9 Light in the Sky (6/5). Two of the horses I liked scratched, so I’m going to pass on this one as I think the 9 has it in the bag today.
Race 4: I honestly don’t see why the ML fave #5 Hieroglyphics (7/5) is the the fave other than the fact Irad is the jockey. He is prime for the pickin’ so I’m intrigued by #3 Field of Courage (8/1). It has the best speed numbers out of today’s field, but has not been running at this longer 1m distance. I’m going to go with the speed at an unproven distance at a high price.
Race 5: Last month at Keeneland #5 Guana Cay (6/1) failed as the favorite in her debut race. She still ran much better than the only 2 other horses that have ran before in today’s field. Not only is she under Irad, she is also switching from turf to dirt which could be the difference maker. Praying that she stays at 6/1 as that’s just too good to pass up.
Race 6: Another maiden race littered with first timers, I’m going to go with a second timer ridden by Jose Ortiz in #2 Pivotal Mission (4/1). Pivotal is simply the best value — Irad is teamed up with Chad Brown on a first timer that’s a ML 5/2, so give me the experience with an elite jockey at a decent price.
Race 7: Today’s big race for the fillies is the G1 Balrina. An absolutely loaded field with multiple graded stakes winners. I think this race is wide open, so I’m going to try to catch an trifecta box with: #3 Victim of Love (15/1), #4 Bellafina (9/5), #5 Letruska (5/1) and #6 Pink Sands (10/1). A trifecta doesn’t typically pay as much in a 7 horse race, but with 2 double digit odds in there, it should pay out decently with a win (especially if one of those two wins).
Race 8: Another graded race, the G3 Troy Stakes is a 5 1/2 sprint on turf. I’m inclined to go with #5 Shekky Shebaz (5/2) who very well could be bet up to the favorite. Irad has teamed up with trainer Christophe Clement, who has been having an amazing meet at The Spa. If Shekky is bet up too much, #2 American Sailor (12/1) is the best value play.
Race 9: Yet another graded rage, the G3 Waya Stakes, features another Irad/Clement pairing that I just can’t resist. #5 Olympic Game (4/1) is the value play with 3 other heavily favored horses running in this 7 horse field. She’s the 4th favorite, but has is coming off back-to-back 2nds, while the two heavy favorites have not competed well in their most recent races. I might have to do an Ortiz Brothers Exacta Box (TM) this race as well, as Jose’s #4 My Sister Nat (2/1) also has back-to-back 2nd place finishes.
Race 10: Our 2nd of 3 G1s today, the Longines Test Stakes, features two front runners that will be very tough to beat. The value play is #3 Mrs. Danvers (8/1) under Jose Ortiz, who’s recent races have not been as good as our two heavy faves, but if she can run like she did in her only career win, she has a chance today.
Race 11: The Travers, see above!
Race 12: If you have any money left — save it! A maiden race to end the day, I am not touching this. Enjoy your evening!
Ponies and Bourbon 